Environmental Science and Policy

ABSTRACT  Keywords: Bayesian networks Land use modelling Spatial planning Land conflicts Land suitability Data scarcity Land use change is a major driver of environmental degradation, necessitating appropriate planning to navigate trade-offs between societal objectives and ecological impacts. Sound planning is limited in some regions by data scarcity and incomplete scientific knowledge on local dynamics shaping development of land. In this paper, we present a novel expert-based participatory approach that uses Bayesian networks to determine land use suitability and potential conflicts for emerging land uses. This method encompasses a workshop phase for building suitability models for different sectors, data assembly and preparation, spatialization of networks, and iterative validation with experts. Mapped suitabilities for all land uses were used to assess potential competition for land across sectors and to quantify alignment of the expert-modeled outcomes with established land use policy. Applied to Curaçao, a data-poor environment in the Caribbean facing high land use competition, the method enabled the construction and parameterization of 5 Bayesian networks driven by 35 spatial input datasets generated through various methods from participatory mapping to social media analysis. Overlap in suitable locations for conservation and tourism development along segments of the coastline and roadsides of the western island highlight potential conflict stemming from coincidence of desirable natural amenities and ecologically sensitive areas. Results yield key insights that can drive discussion and inform policymakers and spatial planners as they navigate tradeoffs and seek optimal use of limited land resources. Process-based suitability predictions and knowledge of underlying drivers can also enable exploratory analysis into possible future scenarios of change.   

To secure the sustainable use of nature, governments track nature’s health and develop regulations and policies.Although there is a seeming abundance in observation-recordings, decision- and policy-makers are constrainedby the lack of data and indicators, mostly as a result of barriers preventing existing data from being found,accessed, made suitable for (automated) processing and reused, but also due to missing visualisations targeted atanswering questions asked by policy makers. This paper explores the process and principles for developing abiodiversity web-platform that informs policy and management on the state and trends of nature, based onexperiences with the Dutch Caribbean Biodiversity Database (DCBD). The DCBD supports the assessment of thestate of nature and guarantees long-term data availability in an environment that experiences a high turnover inproject funds and personnel. Three principles made DCBD’s uptake and growth possible: The platform is funded,promoted and used by national and regional policy makers, it simplifies tasks of local management and rap-porteurs, and it is continuously being adapted to changing needs and insights. Stronger dissemination of DCBD’snarratives in social arenas (e.g. newspapers, social media) may make Caribbean nature and biodiversity morepolitically and societally relevant.