In this report we review and assess possible consequences of climate change for the biodiversity of the Dutch BES islands (Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius), and present various options for adaptation. From our review it is quite clear that climate change not only poses a severe threat to the ecosystems of the BES islands, but also to the totality of benefits and services the inhabitants of these islands derive from those ecosystems. Key changes in climate expected this century include increases in air and sea surface temperature, an increase in sea level and ocean acidity, an increase in the frequency and intensity of storms and hurricanes, general aridification and greater overall unpredictability in weather. The consequences for both terrestrial and marine biodiversity are predicted to be far-reaching. The principal effects will likely include further losses to the coral reef systems, erosion of coasts and beaches, salinification of ground water sources, losses in hilltop vegetation and flora, soil humus losses and erosion, increases in various disease vectors, changes in ocean currents, fish recruitment and migration, and a stronger foothold for invasive species.
The main areas of environmental policy involving the management of biodiversity are those of land-use planning and zoning, forestry and terrestrial conservation, and marine conservation. As for land-use planning and zoning, main issues of concern will be the introduction of the 'set back' policy for coastal development, the preservation of the full range of key habitats, and sufficient habitat surface area to sustain minimum viable populations for native species. In addition these habitats must be ecologically connected to allow free movement of animals across the habitats they need throughout the different seasons of the year and phases of their life cycle. In terms of forestry and terrestrial conservation policy, the focus will especially need to be on solving the problem of uncontrolled grazing of livestock, and the implementation of reforestation and groundwater conservation. Key issues in marine conservation policy will be to tackle the technically and financially challenging problem of eutrophication and the socially controversial limits to the harvest of reef organisms.
While it is the large industrialized countries that drive man-induced climate change, it is the small island developing states (SIDS) and small coastal states that will suffer the most from climate change. In this respect it may be especially valuable for the BES islands to develop and participate in larger efforts to convince (pressure, lobby) the large industrialized nations to adopt those changes needed in their industrial and energy policies by which to avert the most disastrous scales of global climate change. As the stakes are obviously very high, the BES islands should seek to actively develop and/or participate in such efforts. However, to do this credibly and convincingly will require the islands to develop their own vision and policy and to implement important measures of their own. While the topic of climate change has recently come to the attention of government, preparation and readiness for climate change lags behind.
The main options for local adaptation measures as outlined all come down to just one principle: to 'manage for resilience' of the ecosystems as much as possible by reducing the stress induced by local anthropogenic pressures. This will require proper data and knowledge as well as a proper monitoring of impacts and results. In this, investment in baseline inventories, dedicated research and a monitoring system is essential.
If international resolve falters and precipitous global climatic change cannot ultimately be avoided, large ecological regime shifts may cause ecosystems and species in any given area to become ecologically untenable, and introduced species to become firmly established and impossible to eradicate. If so, it will be important to make hard choices and not waste valuable time and resources fighting lost causes. Therefore, in the future successful management of natural resources will often require managers and decisions makers to think differently than in the past, to abandon old paradigms and objectives, and to focus more on general ecosystem services than on specific details. Hence our ability and willingness to adaptively 'manage for change' will be critical, as will be the need for effective decision making under conditions of complexity, uncertainty and imperfect knowledge.