sea level rise

Part of the larger The impacts of climate change on Bonaire (2022-present) report available here.
 

Summary

Coastal hazards pose a significant threat to small islands, especially in combination with Sea Level Rise (SLR). Currently, the small Caribbean island of Bonaire is poorly protected against coastal flooding and there is a lack of local knowledge on potential adaptation options and their benefits and trade-offs. This study aims to fill this gap by evaluating how different coastal adaptation options to protect Bonaire are valued, considering economic, social, environmental, and technical criteria. This is evaluated using a participatory Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) that includes key stakeholders through semistructured interviews and the use of an online questionnaire. A wide variety of coastal adaptation options, ranging from grey infrastructure to softer Nature-based Solutions (NbS), is assessed based on an interdisciplinary set of 10 different criteria, providing a holistic view of the consequences of each option. The results show that NbS, especially mangrove restoration, and spatial zoning measures are overall perceived to be most beneficial. The least favourable adaptation strategies include the construction of any type of seawall and doing nothing. While an MCA does not lead to a final perfect solution, it does provide valuable comparative information about potential future adaptation strategies for Bonaire, which can be used to aid policy makers in the decision-making process. Moving forward, it is important to further strengthen the results of this study by conducting additional quantified analyses, including an evaluation of the spatial suitability of specific measures or combinations of measures. Moreover, to ensure public support for any final policy decisions, regardless of the specific measures that a

Smalls islands are especially vulnerable to climate change and land  use changes due to the competing needs for limited resources. To support the NEXUS approach we need evidence based monitoring tools that can provide policy makers, conservation managers, entrepeneurs, scientists and the general public with information on the state, pressures and associated changes in the environment. Satellite imagery can provide synoptic information at appropriate
spatial and temporal resolutions that can support evidence based monitoring. Only at very detailed levels information might be added by using airplanes or drones. Remotely sensed information can help to provide information on e.g. land cover and associated dynamics such as urban sprawl, mapping habitats such as mangroves and coral reefs, surveying terrain conditions such as soil moisture conditions and erosion hazards associated within catchments, sea level rise and changing coastlines, and on many aspects of the vegetation (natural and agriculture), such as plant traits, phenology and plant growth. Remotely sensed information can in general make field surveys and monitoring more effective, and can thoroughly support decision making.

Global sea-level rise of up to 0.6 m is predicted in the next 100 years. In areas where coastal structures prevent landward mi- gration of beaches, a major impact of sea-level rise will be a loss of beach habitat, with repercussions for beach-dependent organ- isms such as sea turtles. Setback regulations, which prohibit construction within a set distance from the sea, have the potential to mitigate loss of beach area by providing a buffer zone which allows for the natural movement of beaches in response to perturbation. The potential impact of a rise in sea level on 11 important sea turtle nesting beaches in Barbados under a range of setback regu- lations was determined. Three sea-level rise scenarios were modelled under five different setback regulations (10, 30, 50, 70 and 90 m). Beach area was lost from all beaches under all sea-level rise scenarios with a 10 and 30 m setback, from some beaches with a 50 m setback and from one beach with a 70 m setback. No beach area was lost with a 90 m setback distance. Sea turtles nest within a range of beach elevations and there was an overall loss of beach habitat within the preferred nesting elevation range with both a 10 and 30 m setback under all sea-level rise scenarios. Considerable variation in the extent of beach and nesting area loss was observed. The implementation and enforcement of adequate setback regulations have the potential to maintain the ecological and economic function of beaches in the face of extensive coastal development and sea-level rise.