Indicators

Bonaire is facing major challenges including (mass) tourism, population growth, urban expansion, climate change, biodiversity loss and the unilateral dependency on tourism. In thirty years, Bonaire will inevitably look different. Here, two different possible futures are presented, to form a basis for dialogue amongst stakeholders and to stimulate a positive change and sustainability on Bonaire. One of these scenarios follows current trends (business-as-usual), and the other bends those trends into a nature-inclusive future after a vision developed by a trans-disciplinary team of researchers, local experts and stakeholders. For both scenarios drivers and impacts are visualized and documented on climate, tourist numbers, population, infrastructure, resources, land use, erosion and nature. 
Visualizing scenarios is one important piece in creating awareness about the future as it allows to shed light of the difficult to grasp long-term effects, and explicitly showcases current trends. It gives opportunities to imagine a future that looks different from the prognosis, and to inspire to work towards a sustainable and desirable future.

DISCUSSION AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES (excerpt from the report)

With this study, we shed light on measurable impacts to Bonaire if current trends continue as usual; and provided an alternative which can be visualized as a result of nature inclusive policies, actions and land use changes. However steering changes towards nature inclusivity is not only a change in land (and sea) use and indicator values, but to make it a reality it is a change in mindset of an entire community. This cannot happen without the awareness of the trade-offs that nature inclusive actions can bring to the many different stakeholders involved. In this discussion we make a case for the importance of nature inclusivity on Bonaire, and make a start towards a dialogue about the risks, trade-offs and opportunities that may lie ahead.
We have documented the current trends: Bonaire has experienced a quadrupling in population size over the past half century. Cruise tourism started growing exponentially in the mid-2000s, and stay-over tourism steadily increasing. All while access to freshwater with the climate change projections becomes more difficult and costly. While some Dutch Caribbean islands might have experienced a much more explosive increase in tourism and population than Bonaire (e.g. Aruba), other islands experience more stability (e.g. Saba). Anecdotal evidence from other islands (see Bonaire reporter, 2022), as well as the projections showcased in this report imply that if Bonaire wants to stay relevant as a tourist destination and support its growing population the island needs to focus on its long-term assets.
The scenarios in this report were described using indicators that progress along the trends and rates of the past several years. While these assumptions include some climate change parameters like gradual warming, and gradually reduced precipitation, they fail to consider implications of unforeseen natural disasters, or increasing severe weather conditions which will take a toll on the island. Neither do the scenario projections consider any changes in world trade processes for food or fuel. An honest look at the state of the island for the next 30 years under the Business as Usual projections indicates that sustaining such growth under the current (environmental or political) conditions of the planet are relatively short-lived, and are built on a set of fragile assumptions.
Naturally, trends described in the nature inclusive scenario imply (policy) choices with varying effects on each sector as shown using several indicators. In some cases, the rates compared to the BaU scenario will be slower (population growth due to immigrants, stay-over tourism, urbanisation), while with other indicators/sectors growth rates will increase (greenness, agricultural land, green and wind energy use and water collection). Specific implications of a scenario can be beneficial, while others can be unfavourable, depending on the agenda of each particular stakeholder. An example of such a trade-off is the extensive local food production under the nature inclusive scenario: in the foreseen closed agricultural system there is far less need for off-island nutrient imports. As fewer nutrients are brought onto the island, this reduces the harm from foreign particles to the environment and the reef. As such, the reef is more likely to stay healthy and can continue to be a major tourist attraction. Nevertheless, individuals currently working in the food import logistics sector may experience a decrease in business. This may be overcome by jobs created through the growing local food production industry, but awareness of this trade-off is important when instigating changes. Attractiveness of the nature inclusive scenario in the short-term depends on the stakeholder. While in the long-term, the implication of the nature-inclusive scenario is of an island prosperity that is inclusive for everyone and ensures sustainability. One which is much less dependent on the few precarious pillars on which it is currently built: food and fuel importation.
Another crucial trade-off of the nature inclusive scenario is the implication of water and waste collection. This requires significant infrastructural investments (sceptic tank collection, or rooftop collection installations, appropriate facilities and road ways to ensure this, and home fitting) which requires not only government support, but individual support and repeated actions. It means a change in routine, from linear to circular consumption. Routine is a difficult circuit to make or break. This will require a cultural understanding of the benefits and wholehearted will to change the norm. It may require a big investment in time and energy in the short-term to create a long term self-sustaining infrastructure

Sergeant majors (Abudefduf saxatilis) engage in male-dominated reproduction: males establish territories, females are courted, mate with the male and then depart – leaving protection of the eggs to the male. A. saxatilis prefer smooth, artificial substrate for egg laying; in Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean, they tend to mate on large, concrete mooring blocks which have surfaces of varying degrees of exposure to the water column. Preferred nesting locations were expected to be those offering the least exposure, as broods would be shielded from predators and guarding males would expend minimal energy. The number of threats, chases and feeds in a 5 min interval were recorded as an indicator of energy expenditure and consumption. The length of the fish and size of corresponding egg brood were measured as indicators of mating potential. The number of threats, chases and feeds did not differ significantly between degrees of exposure, but threats and chases differed between sites, being greatest at the site closest to the reef, possibly indicating that exposure does not play a role in energy expenditure and therefore may not affect preferred mating locations. However, larger fish and larger broods were observed on the most protected sides of the mooring blocks offering some support to the notion that A. saxatilis prefer to nest in more protected locations. An increase in the number of artificial structures could lead to an A. saxatilis population rise

This student research was retrieved from Physis: Journal of Marine Science XI (Fall 2012)19: 58-63 from CIEE Bonaire.

The Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Saba, St.Eustatius, Aruba, Curacao and St. Maarten are part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The islands have a rich biological diversity and a variety of globally threatened ecosystems. These ecosystems are important for their services such as the production of food, coastal protection, tourism attraction, erosion control, medicine, carbon sequestration and climate change resilience, water and air purification and/or retention, and non-material benefits such as heritage and recreational experiences. Robust monitoring indicators are needed to assess ecosystem health in relation to environmental change and socio-economic stressors and exploitation.
The Kingdom of the Netherlands has ratified international treaties and conventions, signed regional agreements and implemented national law for the protection of nature and biodiversity in the Dutch Caribbean. These treaties call for reporting on status and trends of biodiversity.
Currently considerable effort is being invested in collecting baseline data and local monitoring to support local policy on and management of nature and biodiversity. These activities partially overlap with the demands of treaty reporting requests, but do not provide all the data necessary to satisfy the needs of either the reporting obligations or the local policy and management needs. The main issues are that:
• Existing monitoring programmes on the islands do not cover all required biodiversity and nature topics;
• Several existing monitoring programmes are based on methods that cannot be used to generate the indicators required.
This report concludes that monitoring all the separate species identified would require considerable resources. Monitoring in the Dutch Caribbean cannot be compared to the Netherlands which has a long history of monitoring the natural environment and many periodic reviews of the efficacy of monitoring techniques. Holistic monitoring of ecosystems using key indicators is a good alternative to detailed monitoring as the ecosystem health implicitly considers all dependent species. However, some additional species monitoring is necessary of keystone species, endangered species, commercially important species and invasive species.
It is recommended to :

• Keep supporting the foolowing current activities: Maintain existing monitoring on: turtle nests, coral, cover, shark and ray densities, flamingo counts, yellow-shouldered amazon roost counts and terns. Adjust the existing monitoring for: fish densities and population structure, bird species richness, red billed tropic bird, Lesser Antillean Iguana;
• Set up ecosystem/habitat monitoring;
• Set up vegetation monitoring;
• Link forest and migratory bird monitoring to vegetation monitoring;
• Link bird of prey monitoring to flamingo monitoring on Bonaire;
• Collect data on pressures and abiotic conditions from other sources ;
• Stimulate the use of volunteers for monitoring