van Eupen, M.

Bonaire 2050, putting the vision into numbers

Bonaire is facing major challenges including (mass) tourism, population growth, urban expansion, climate change, biodiversity loss and the unilateral dependency on tourism. In thirty years, Bonaire will inevitably look different. Here, two different possible futures are presented, to form a basis for dialogue amongst stakeholders and to stimulate a positive change and sustainability on Bonaire. One of these scenarios follows current trends (business-as-usual), and the other bends those trends into a nature-inclusive future after a vision developed by a trans-disciplinary team of researchers, local experts and stakeholders. For both scenarios drivers and impacts are visualized and documented on climate, tourist numbers, population, infrastructure, resources, land use, erosion and nature. 
Visualizing scenarios is one important piece in creating awareness about the future as it allows to shed light of the difficult to grasp long-term effects, and explicitly showcases current trends. It gives opportunities to imagine a future that looks different from the prognosis, and to inspire to work towards a sustainable and desirable future.

DISCUSSION AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES (excerpt from the report)

With this study, we shed light on measurable impacts to Bonaire if current trends continue as usual; and provided an alternative which can be visualized as a result of nature inclusive policies, actions and land use changes. However steering changes towards nature inclusivity is not only a change in land (and sea) use and indicator values, but to make it a reality it is a change in mindset of an entire community. This cannot happen without the awareness of the trade-offs that nature inclusive actions can bring to the many different stakeholders involved. In this discussion we make a case for the importance of nature inclusivity on Bonaire, and make a start towards a dialogue about the risks, trade-offs and opportunities that may lie ahead.
We have documented the current trends: Bonaire has experienced a quadrupling in population size over the past half century. Cruise tourism started growing exponentially in the mid-2000s, and stay-over tourism steadily increasing. All while access to freshwater with the climate change projections becomes more difficult and costly. While some Dutch Caribbean islands might have experienced a much more explosive increase in tourism and population than Bonaire (e.g. Aruba), other islands experience more stability (e.g. Saba). Anecdotal evidence from other islands (see Bonaire reporter, 2022), as well as the projections showcased in this report imply that if Bonaire wants to stay relevant as a tourist destination and support its growing population the island needs to focus on its long-term assets.
The scenarios in this report were described using indicators that progress along the trends and rates of the past several years. While these assumptions include some climate change parameters like gradual warming, and gradually reduced precipitation, they fail to consider implications of unforeseen natural disasters, or increasing severe weather conditions which will take a toll on the island. Neither do the scenario projections consider any changes in world trade processes for food or fuel. An honest look at the state of the island for the next 30 years under the Business as Usual projections indicates that sustaining such growth under the current (environmental or political) conditions of the planet are relatively short-lived, and are built on a set of fragile assumptions.
Naturally, trends described in the nature inclusive scenario imply (policy) choices with varying effects on each sector as shown using several indicators. In some cases, the rates compared to the BaU scenario will be slower (population growth due to immigrants, stay-over tourism, urbanisation), while with other indicators/sectors growth rates will increase (greenness, agricultural land, green and wind energy use and water collection). Specific implications of a scenario can be beneficial, while others can be unfavourable, depending on the agenda of each particular stakeholder. An example of such a trade-off is the extensive local food production under the nature inclusive scenario: in the foreseen closed agricultural system there is far less need for off-island nutrient imports. As fewer nutrients are brought onto the island, this reduces the harm from foreign particles to the environment and the reef. As such, the reef is more likely to stay healthy and can continue to be a major tourist attraction. Nevertheless, individuals currently working in the food import logistics sector may experience a decrease in business. This may be overcome by jobs created through the growing local food production industry, but awareness of this trade-off is important when instigating changes. Attractiveness of the nature inclusive scenario in the short-term depends on the stakeholder. While in the long-term, the implication of the nature-inclusive scenario is of an island prosperity that is inclusive for everyone and ensures sustainability. One which is much less dependent on the few precarious pillars on which it is currently built: food and fuel importation.
Another crucial trade-off of the nature inclusive scenario is the implication of water and waste collection. This requires significant infrastructural investments (sceptic tank collection, or rooftop collection installations, appropriate facilities and road ways to ensure this, and home fitting) which requires not only government support, but individual support and repeated actions. It means a change in routine, from linear to circular consumption. Routine is a difficult circuit to make or break. This will require a cultural understanding of the benefits and wholehearted will to change the norm. It may require a big investment in time and energy in the short-term to create a long term self-sustaining infrastructure

Date
2022
Data type
Research report
Theme
Research and monitoring
Report number
3168
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

The state of cactus fences and kunukus for nature inclusivity on the island of Bonaire

Agriculture on Bonaire does not support the demand for food on the island, and therefore the people are dependent on expensive food importation. Recently, any Bonairean people abandon their kunukus to take jobs in the urban area in tourism or off-island in the oil industry. Traditionally, a kunuku was used as an agricultural plot for food production for the household. A kunuku would usually have a cactus fence used to contain grazing goats or chickens, or to produce household amounts of sorghum maize, and keep animals out. In order to help restore nature to Bonaire and include it in the daily lives of people, restoration and use of cactus fences on kunukus are being considered as nature inclusive measure. In order to get a better understanding of the current use of kunukus and presence of cactus fences on the island, satellite information and field observations were collected about the state of kunukus and the use of cactus fences. Results show that kunukus are rapidly being abandoned. The predictive accuracy from satellite imagery of active kunukus was high (92.5%). Furthermore, only 4% of the active kunukus have a well-maintained cactus fence. Implications of these findings are discussed with focus on nature inclusiveness and the use of the kunuku as a means to restore a cultural pride, self-sufficiency, local economic diversification and a healthier food culture on Bonaire.

Date
2022
Data type
Research report
Theme
Research and monitoring
Report number
3150
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

Kunuku activity and cactus fence observations

Field observations of over 100 Kunukus from September 2021. The observations have primarilly been used to validate a visual interpretation of satelite imagery of Kunuku use  (Jailani et al., 2020), from which fields a random sample was drawn (Lazebnik et al., 2022).

Observations characterized:

  • Kunuku - in use / not in use (based on state of overgrowth)
  • Cactus fence state- absent / poor / partial / good

 

Date
2021
Data type
Maps and Charts
Theme
Research and monitoring
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

Kunuku fields Bonaire, 1956

Kunuku fields of Bonaire based on digitisation of a historical paper land capability map (Westerman and Zonneveld, 1956).

For a selection of these fields the (historical) use is known (Cahyani, 2021), based on the same paper source.

See also this report on Kunuku activity and cactus fences.

 

Date
2021
Data type
Maps and Charts
Theme
Research and monitoring
Tags
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

Land capability classification for Bonaire 1956

Land capability for growing agicultural crops, husbandry and forestry for Bonaire. Based on fieldwork from the 1950s.

The zones are digitized from the hardcopy (paper) land capabilities map .

Date
2021
Data type
Maps and Charts
Theme
Research and monitoring
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

Bonaire 2050, a nature inclusive vision

2nd edition (2022) including maps of futures with accompnaying trend projections and indicators.
1st edition (2020).

This is a story about one of the Dutch Caribbean islands: Bonaire.

A story that is shaped by the people of Bonaire and that may help develop this small beautiful island into an example where well-being and prosperity are balanced with cultural heritage. This vision builds further on the local history of planning, linking ongoing Bonairean and Dutch visions and strategies. It shows Bonaire as an example of embracing nature for our livelihoods.

Experts from Bonaire and The Netherlands have developed this vision for the island in 2050 to inspire you. It is the result of a series of design sessions, interviews and workshops with local experts, decision makers and researchers in the field of nature, culture, recreation, agricul - ture and governance. The results are views of a future in which economic development and a nature inclusive society join forces to maintain what is precious, and to improve what is already damaged or threatened. We call this a ‘nature inclusive vision’.

Some of the challenges that were addressed during the mapping process included managing (mass) tourism and population growth, prevent - ing high erosion rates due to free-roaming cat - tle, recharging fresh water in the soil, increasing the use of renewable energy, and adaptation to sea level rise. This would strengthen nature and tackle the one-sided dependency on tourism. Together, we have mapped potential nature-in - clusive measures and deliberated where, why and how these could be adopted. These poten - tial measures include for example rooftop water harvesting, reforestation and greening gardens using indigenous species, growing local food, creating cactus fences, installing solar panels and coral restoration.

This vision looks into the policy context and challenges and shows you the characteristics and cultural contexts of the different landscapes of Bonaire. It considers the inclusive concepts that nature can offer to help Bonaire in navigat - ing some of the challenges that were mapped out. This vision is illustrated by three-dimen - sional landscape visualisations; a Bonaire as you have never seen it before...

Contents of the booklet:

  • A new story
  • A policy background
  • Nature inclusive planning
  • Bonaire's challenges
    • Urban and elite estate expansion
    • A changing climate
    • Diversifying the economy
    • Using renewable energy
    • Managing tourism
    • Recharging fresh water in the soil
    • Maintaining, enhancing and restoring nature
    • Local produce and healthy diets
    • Flourishing cultural heritage
  • Interweaving nature in Bonaire's landscapes - a vision towards the future
    • Kralendijk urban fabric
    • Calm cliff coast
    • Calcareous ancient forest plateau
    • North-western hills
    • Traditional valley of Rincon
    • Kunuku
    • Caribbean savanna
    • Windswept inhospitable northeast coast
    • Lac Lagoon
    • Southern flats
    • Scrubby southern limestone pavement
    • Unoccopied island of Klein Bonaire
  • Next steps

This 2nd edition booklet and accompanying map with impact indicators, is based on the following reports:

Date
2022
Data type
Media
Theme
Education and outreach
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

Agricultural fields (Kunuku) Bonaire

Agricultural fields of Bonaire based on visual interpretation of satelite imagery of 2019 and 2003 using Google Earth. Fields have been interpreted as being 'in use' when borders could be distinguished between field and neighbouring area and that fields were barren in contrast to the borders and/or neighbouring area. Mind: This data is not (yet) validated with field observations or expert judgement.

The following classes are used:

  • [red] Fields that are in agricultural use in 2003, but no longer in 2019 (presumably abandoned, or given a new function like urbanization)
  • [yellow] Fields that are both in agricultural use in 2003 and in 2019 
  • [grey] Fields that still have recognizable borders in 2003, but don't seem to be used in 2003. Probably abandoned before 2003. This class has only been digitized for the Rincon area
Date
2020
Data type
Maps and Charts
Theme
Research and monitoring
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

A nature inclusive vision for Bonaire in 2050

Bonaire, one of the Dutch Caribbean islands, is facing major challenges: managing (mass) tourism and population growth, preventing high erosion rates due to free-roaming cattle, recharging fresh water into the soil, increasing the use of renewable energy, adaptation to sea level rise and extreme weather events, halting biodiversity loss and tackling the unilateral dependency on tourism. In thirty years, Bonaire inevitably will look different. Progressing on current trends will only increase the challenges, a new way of thinking, planning and acting is needed.

Together with local experts a vision for Bonaire in 2050 is portrayed, in which nature and natural processes play a key role in all development activities – a ‘nature inclusive vision’. The vision aims to inspire. It outlines a future in which economic development and a nature inclusive society join forces to maintain what is precious, and to improve what is already impaired or threatened.

The report starts by describing the policy context and challenges. It then looks at what nature inclusive concepts can offer to navigate some of the challenges Bonaire is experiencing illustrated by three-dimensional landscape visualisations.

Challenges:

  • Urban and elite estate expansion
  • A changing climate
  • Diversifying the economy
  • Managing tourism
  • Recharging fresh water into the soil
  • Using renewable energy
  • Maintaining, enhancing and restoring nature
  • Locl produce and healthy diets
  • Flourishing cultural heritage

This report is also published as graphical, more accesible publication. You can find that booklet here.

Date
2020
Data type
Research report
Theme
Research and monitoring
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image

Landscape map Bonaire

Landscape map that depicts the intersections of biophysical, cultural and aesthetic characteristics, delineating landscape types to which coherent sets of nature-inclusive measures are assigned. This landscape map was developed using clusters of nature-inclusive measures that were spatially located by local experts on a map of Bonaire, in combination with geological, soil , elevation , vegetation , planning and high resolution land cover maps.

See this report for more information.

Date
2020
Data type
Maps and Charts
Theme
Research and monitoring
Geographic location
Bonaire
Image